Agency tracks US polls for policy insights

The Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) is watching the US presidential election for insights on policy directions related to the economy, investment and foreign affairs.
Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, director-general of TPSO, said the agency is tracking the US presidential election slated for Nov 5 between Democratic Vice-President Kamala Harris and Republican former president Donald Trump because it can have a significant impact on the Thai economy.
If Ms Harris wins the election, support for free trade is expected to increase. She has the potential to usher in a global trade revival that could lift the US economy and enhance US global leadership, according to the office.
The US may consider rejoining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), giving Thailand second thoughts about applying for membership to expand trade with pact members, noted the TPSO.
Thailand may benefit from investments in Industry 4.0 and technology transfer via an intensified partnership with CPTPP countries.
Mr Trump has proposed up to 100% tariffs on Chinese goods and a blanket tariff of 10-20% on all other imports, while Ms Harris is expected to largely stick with President Biden’s targeted tariffs on certain Chinese imports, such as a 100% rate on electric vehicles and a 50% rate on solar panels.
This could affect supply chains linked to China, meaning Thailand may have to adjust by expanding to other markets to diversify risk, according to the office.
“If Ms Harris wins the election, this may open opportunities for Thai companies with expertise in clean energy such as solar, wind and biomass for joint investment in the US, as well as technology transfer for the production of high-performance batteries for Thailand,” noted the TPSO.
In terms of digital innovation and technology, Ms Harris’ policies could encourage investment in 5G and artificial intelligence, opening up opportunities for Thai telecom and software companies to join the global supply chain, as well as the exchange of knowledge and experience in smart city development.
Furthermore, there may be opportunities for joint ventures between Thai and US companies in agritech, in which Thailand has a comparative advantage.
Ms Harris is trying to raise the minimum wage and social welfare in the US. Even though it may increase production costs, it is unlikely to have a direct impact on inflation in Thailand.
She also wants to lower prescription drug costs and energy costs, which may help stabilise product prices in the world market, which will be beneficial controlling inflation in Thailand.
The US inflation control policy may ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, which will help reduce the volatility of the baht and inflation in Thailand.
If Mr Trump wins, there may be a significant increase in tariffs on Chinese imports of up to 60% or more, according to the agency.
There is also an opportunity for US companies to relocate their manufacturing bases to Thailand, while demand for products from Thailand may increase, offering opportunities for Thai entrepreneurs to be part of the global supply chain.
However, the US may impose non-tariff barriers such as health and environmental regulations and food standards to protect consumers and preserve the environment, noted the TPSO.
“Thai entrepreneurs should comply with environmental regulations and standards to build trust and create opportunities to be part of the global supply chain,” Mr Poonpong said.